• From: Lawrence, KS
  • Registered: 2009-11-17
  • Posts: 580

Topic: Probability

I think something is wrong with the probability engine.  Today I had 5 attempts to cast a 80% spell (0.128% probability) and in a battle an opposing unit lasted 5 rounds after losing 10% with fear 5 (1.89% probability).  These two happened in the span of a few hours.

These low probability events should not be occurring this often.

And God Said:
Δ*D = ρf                   Δ*B = 0
ΔxE = -δB/δt            ΔxH = Jf + δD/δt
and THEN there was light.
  • Registered: 2009-11-17
  • Posts: 131

Re: Probability

Speaking of which, i noticed the probability of casting spells goes up the more you use them(ive seen it with me own eyes) but today on beta it went down 2% back to 78% sad how does the game actually figure probability?

  • Registered: 2010-03-02
  • Posts: 238

Re: Probability

Don't spells get harder the bigger you get? I don't even trust those probabilities because they never really seem to coincide with what actually happens.

The easy part was getting the brain out! The hard part was getting the brain out
  • From: Lawrence, KS
  • Registered: 2009-11-17
  • Posts: 580

Re: Probability

Voldtekt wrote:

Don't spells get harder the bigger you get? I don't even trust those probabilities because they never really seem to coincide with what actually happens.

Difficulty is not the issue, its the displayed % chance and the outcomes.

And God Said:
Δ*D = ρf                   Δ*B = 0
ΔxE = -δB/δt            ΔxH = Jf + δD/δt
and THEN there was light.
  • From: Ghent, Belgium
  • Registered: 2009-11-16
  • Posts: 321

Re: Probability

I'm using mt_rand for random number generator, so I don't really see how it couldn't be random.

http://www.daedeloth.be/

Daedeloth's Website

  • From: Lawrence, KS
  • Registered: 2009-11-17
  • Posts: 580

Re: Probability

Im not sure if it would in number generation or some combination of functions.

A battle that just ended for me.  Fear 5 used.  Based upon the description I calculated the chance for a defending unit to flee once they lost the 10% to be 70% (50*1.4).

After losing 10% a unit stayed another 4 rounds with a probability of (.3)(.3)(.3)(.7) = .0189 or 1.89%

Maybe I am unlucky but statistically I should not be seeing events with these probabilities this often.

And God Said:
Δ*D = ρf                   Δ*B = 0
ΔxE = -δB/δt            ΔxH = Jf + δD/δt
and THEN there was light.
  • From: Ghent, Belgium
  • Registered: 2009-11-16
  • Posts: 321

Re: Probability

Well, for battles: I have indeed seen some weird reports. Still have to take a closer look at those spells in battle.

But for spells and thief actions outside battle, sounds like bad luck tbh. I'll do another debug round to be sure smile

http://www.daedeloth.be/

Daedeloth's Website

  • From: Lawrence, KS
  • Registered: 2009-11-17
  • Posts: 580

Re: Probability

I just had another odd spell casting... (0.8%) probability.

And God Said:
Δ*D = ρf                   Δ*B = 0
ΔxE = -δB/δt            ΔxH = Jf + δD/δt
and THEN there was light.
  • From: Lawrence, KS
  • Registered: 2009-11-17
  • Posts: 580

Re: Probability

Just saw a battle were the first center defender stayed 4 rounds past 10% (1.89% probability) and then the next one to step up stayed the final three rounds past 10% (2.7% probability).

This is of course with fear 5 up and running.

And God Said:
Δ*D = ρf                   Δ*B = 0
ΔxE = -δB/δt            ΔxH = Jf + δD/δt
and THEN there was light.
  • From: Lawrence, KS
  • Registered: 2009-11-17
  • Posts: 580

Re: Probability

I was just casting a village spell 90% probability.  Took 6 tries.  that is .0009% probability occurrence. 

That's a 9 in 1 million chance of happening... unlucky falls well short of explaining it.

Last edited by DoomPope (2010-07-27 18:21:57)

And God Said:
Δ*D = ρf                   Δ*B = 0
ΔxE = -δB/δt            ΔxH = Jf + δD/δt
and THEN there was light.
  • From: Lawrence, KS
  • Registered: 2009-11-17
  • Posts: 580

Re: Probability

4 tries on 90% village spell just now.  .09% chance.

And God Said:
Δ*D = ρf                   Δ*B = 0
ΔxE = -δB/δt            ΔxH = Jf + δD/δt
and THEN there was light.